
The Engle Prize is awarded every two or three years to the scholar who has published the best article in the Journal of Financial Econometrics over the preceding period. The selection committee for the Prize comprises the Journal's editors and external members.
This year's award has been given to Fulvio Corsi for his paper 'A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility'.
Abstract
The paper proposes an additive cascade model of volatility components defined over different time periods. This volatility cascade leads to a simple AR-type model in the realized volatility with the feature of considering different volatility components realized over different time horizons and thus termed Heterogeneous Autoregressive model of Realized Volatility (HAR-RV). In spite of the simplicity of its structure and the absence of true long-memory properties, simulation results show that the HAR-RV model successfully achieves the purpose of reproducing the main empirical features of financial returns (long memory, fat tails, and self-similarity) in a very tractable and parsimonious way. Moreover, empirical results show remarkably good forecasting performance.
You can get the paper here.
Journal of Financial Econometrics
Finance Focus