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Econometrics Beat's Blog

A Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Marriage

August 21, 2011 Comments (0)

There's no doubt that the unholy rift between Bayesian and non-Bayesian statisticians, and econometricians, is a thing of the past. And thank goodness for that, because both parties have so much to offer each other. It wasn't that long ago that it was a case of "them or us" - you had to take sides. That was pretty much the case when I wrote my Ph.D. dissertation in Bayesian econometrics in the early 1970's. These days, most of us are pretty comfortable about using a blend of principles...

After-Dinner Talks to Die For

August 21, 2011 Comments (0)

We all know that things aren't always what they appear to be. The same is true of people. A well known experiment from 1970 provides an interesting and entertaining illustration of this. In the web-only content of the latest issue of Significance magazine (co-published by The American Statistical Association and The Royal Statistical Society), Mikhael Simkin summarizes the story of this experiment. What's new about his piece is that it gives us a link to a video  of...

Prosperity, Thriving, & Economic Growth

August 21, 2011 Comments (0)

A while ago I posted a couple of pieces (here and here) relating to the Better Life Index (BLI) that the OECD released in May of this year. Not surprisingly, the BLI caught the attention of a number of bloggers. Some of the most thoughtful posts on this topic came from the Australian economist, Winton Bates. In the last few days Winton has extended his earlier analysis and comments in a series of posts that look at other, somewhat similar, indices. These include the Legatum...

Econometrics Without Borders?

August 21, 2011 Comments (0)

We're all familiar with the "Doctors Without Borders" organization, and the valuable international medical work that it performs. Perhaps you didn't know that there's also a group called "Statistics Without Borders"? To quote from their web site, their mission statement is as follows: "Statistics Without Borders (SWB) is an apolitical organization under the auspices of the American Statistical Association, comprised entirely of volunteers, that provides pro bono statistical...

Choosing Your Co-Authors Carefully

August 21, 2011 Comments (0)

The choice of your co-authors in academic work can be very important - you all have to be able to bring something to the table, and hopefully there'll be enough synergies to ensure that the paper (or book) is better than any of you could have achieved individually. I must say that I've certainly been extremely fortunate with my own past and current co-authorship "liasons". There's plenty that could be said about deciding on the order of the authors - but I'll leave that for...

Alexander Aitken

August 21, 2011 Comments (0)

Can you imagine what it would be like  trying to learn and teach econometrics without the use of matrix algebra? O.K., I know that some of you are probably thinking, "that would be great!" But give it some serious thought. We'd be extremely limited in what we could do. It would be a nightmare to go beyond the absolute basics. Only in the 1960's, with the classic texts by Johnston (1963) and Goldberger (1964), did the use of matrix algebra become standard practice in the...

The Econometric Game

August 21, 2011 Comments (0)

If you're not familiar with The Econometric Game, you might find it interesting. It's a great concept, and it's become an important international event for graduate students in Econometrics. I was especially pleased when a team from my old department at Monash University, in Melbourne, Australia, won the Game in 2010. © 2011, David E. Giles

One Good Turn Deserves Another

August 21, 2011 Comments (0)

A couple of days ago I received an email from a Ph.D. student in the U.K.. I don't know him, or his supervisor, but the message came with a simple enough request. The student was having trouble getting hold of a copy of a paper published as a chapter in a book (Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics) that Aman Ullah and I edited a few years - could I help in some way? This sort of thing comes up from time to time for all of us, I'm sure. When I got the...

Decline and Fall of Econometrics?

August 21, 2011 Comments (0)

"Please bear in mind throughout that IT IS MEANT TO BE FUNNY."(Evelyn Waugh, 'Author's Note' in Decline and Fall, 1st ed., 1928) I'm not sure that there's anything funny about the decline and fall of Econometrics, especially if you're an econometrician - that's if it were true, of course. But is it? Personally I don't think so. Econometricians seem to be very much in demand. To take one example, if you take a look at the EconJobMarket site right now you'll see that over the past 6...

p-Values for Cointegration Tests With Breaks in the Data

August 21, 2011 Comments (0)

In an earlier post I went through some econometrics that involved the problem of testing for multivariate cointegration in the case where there are one or more trend-breaks or level-breaks in the time-series data.  Specifically, I talked about the modified Trace tests introduced by Johansen et al. (2000), and I mentioned the really nice discussion of the application of these tests that is provided by Joyeux (2007). Two things relating to this occurred to me recently. The...