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Evolutionary Model of a Anonymous Consumer Durable Market

June 1, 2013 Comments (0)

A analytic model is presented that considers the evolution of a market of durable goods. The model suggests that after introduction goods spread always according to Bass diffusion. However, this phase will be followed for durable consumer goods by a diffusion process governed by a variation-selection-reproduction mechanism and the growth dynamics can be described by a replicator equation.The theory suggests that products play the role of species in biological evolutionary models. It implies...

Economics 2.0: The Natural Step towards A Self-Regulating, Participatory Market Society

May 21, 2013 Comments (0)

Despite all our great advances in science, technology and financial innovations, many societies today are struggling with a financial, economic and public spending crisis, over-regulation, and mass unemployment, as well as lack of sustainability and innovation. Can we still rely on conventional economic thinking or do we need a new approach? I argue that, as the complexity of socio-economic systems increases, networked decision-making and bottom-up self-regulation will be more and more...

Self-healing networks: redundancy and structure

May 21, 2013 Comments (0)

We introduce the concept of self-healing in the field of complex networks. Obvious applications range from infrastructural to technological networks. By exploiting the presence of redundant links in recovering the connectivity of the system, we introduce self-healing capabilities through the application of distributed communication protocols granting the "smartness" of the system. We analyze the interplay between redundancies and smart reconfiguration protocols in improving the resilience of...

A framework for the calibration of social simulation models

May 21, 2013 Comments (0)

Simulation with agent-based models is increasingly used in the study of complex socio-technical systems and in social simulation in general. This paradigm offers a number of attractive features, namely the possibility of modeling emergent phenomena within large populations. As a consequence, often the quantity in need of calibration may be a distribution over the population whose relation with the parameters of the model is analytically intractable. Nevertheless, we can simulate. In this paper...

Modeling self-sustained activity cascades in socio-technical networks

May 21, 2013 Comments (0)

The ability to understand and eventually predict the emergence of information and activation cascades in social networks is core to complex socio-technical systems research. However, the complexity of social interactions makes this a challenging enterprise. Previous works on cascade models assume that the emergence of this collective phenomenon is related to the activity observed in the local neighborhood of individuals, but do not consider what determines the willingness to spread information...

Competition-induced criticality in a model of meme popularity

May 21, 2013 Comments (0)

Heavy-tailed distributions of meme popularity occur naturally in a model of meme diffusion on social networks. Competition between multiple memes for the limited resource of user attention is identified as the mechanism that poises the system at criticality. The popularity growth of each meme is described by a critical branching process, and asymptotic analysis predicts power-law distributions of popularity with very heavy tails (exponent $\alpha

How to Get Rid of Demand-Supply-Equilibrium for Good

May 21, 2013 Comments (0)

This paper provides a substantial reconceptualization of the serial clearing of the product market on the basis of structural axioms. The change of premises is required simply because from the accustomed premises only the accustomed conclusions can be derived and these are known to be inapplicable in the real world. This holds in particular for the still popular idea that the working of a market can be described in terms of the triad demand function–supply function–equilibrium. Structural...

Direct Evidence for Synchronization in Japanese Business Cycle

May 16, 2013 Comments (0)

We have analyzed the Indices of Industrial Production (Seasonal Adjustment Index) for a long period of 240 months (January 1988 to December 2007) to develop a deeper understanding of the economic shocks. The angular frequencies estimated using the Hilbert transformation, are almost identical for the 16 industrial sectors. Moreover, the partial phase locking was observed for the 16 sectors. These are the direct evidence of the synchronization in the Japanese business cycle. We also showed that...

Ergodic transition in a simple model of the continuous double auction

May 16, 2013 Comments (0)

We study a phenomenological model for the continuous double auction, equivalent to two independent $M/M/1$ queues. The continuous double auction defines a continuous-time random walk for trade prices. The conditions for ergodicity of the auction are derived and, as a consequence, three possible regimes in the behavior of prices and logarithmic returns are observed. In the ergodic regime, prices are unstable and one can observe an intermittent behavior in the logarithmic returns. On the...

Scaling symmetry, renormalization, and time series modeling

May 16, 2013 Comments (0)

We present and discuss a stochastic model of financial assets dynamics based on the idea of an inverse renormalization group strategy. With this strategy we construct the multivariate distributions of elementary returns based on the scaling with time of the probability density of their aggregates. In its simplest version the model is the product of an endogenous auto-regressive component and a random rescaling factor embodying exogenous influences. Mathematical properties like increments'...