The key idea of this model is that firms are the result of an evolutionary process. Based on demand and supply considerations the evolutionary model presented here derives explicitly Gibrat's law of proportionate effects as the result of the competition between products. Applying a preferential attachment mechanism for firms the theory allows to establish the size distribution of products and firms. Also established are the growth rate and price distribution of consumer goods. Taking into...

Online popularity has an enormous impact on opinions, culture, policy, and profits. We provide a quantitative, large scale, temporal analysis of the dynamics of online content popularity in two massive model systems: the Wikipedia and an entire country’s Web space. We find that the dynamics of popularity are characterized by bursts, displaying characteristic features of critical systems such as fat-tailed distributions of magnitude and interevent time. We propose a minimal model combining the...

We introduce a class of utility-based market makers that always accept orders at their risk-neutral prices. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for such market makers to have bounded loss. We prove that hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility market makers are equivalent to weighted pseudospherical scoring rule market makers. In particular, Hanson's logarithmic scoring rule market maker corresponds to a negative exponential uti 82f lity market maker in our framework. We describe a...

By analysing the evolution of the street network of Greater London from the late 1700s to the present, we are able to shed light on the inner mechanisms that lie behind the growth of a city. First we define an object called a city as a spatial discontinuous phenomena, from clustering the density of street intersections. Second, we find that the city growth mechanisms can be described by two logistic laws, hence can be determined by a s 49a imple model of urban network growth in the presence of...

We present conditions under b7e which positive alpha exists in the realm of active portfolio management- in contrast to the controversial result in Jarrow (2010, pg. 20) which implicates delegated portfolio management by surmising that positive alphas are illusionary. Specifically, we show that the critical assumption used in Jarrow (2010, pg. 20), to derive the illusionary alpha result, is based on a zero set for CAPM with Lebesgue measure zero. So conclusions based on that assumption may...

The network of patents connected by citations is an evolving graph, which provides a representation of the innovation process. A patent citing another implies that the cited patent reflects a piece of previously existing knowledge that the citing patent builds upon. A methodology presented here (i) identifies actual clusters of patents: i.e. technological branches, and (ii) gives predictions about the temporal changes of the structure of the clusters. A predictor, called the {citation vector},...

Social advertising uses information about consumers' peers, including peer affiliations with a brand, product, organization, etc., to target ads and contextualize their display. This approach can increase ad efficacy for two main reasons: peers' affiliations reflect unobserved consumer characteristics, which are correlated along the social network; and the inclusion of social cues (i.e., peers' association with a brand) alongside ads affect responses via social influence processes. For these...

We describe techniques for the robust detection of community structure in some classes of time-dependent networks. Specifically, we consider the use of statistical null models for facilitating the principled identification of structural modules in semi-decomposable systems. Null models play an important role both in the optimization of quality functions such as modularity and in the subsequent assessment of the statistical validity of identified community structure. We examine the sensitivity...

The newest homologous series of superconducting As-pnictides, LiFeAs (Li111) and NaFeAs (Na111) have been synthesized and investigated. Both crystallize with the layered tetragonal anti-PbFCl-type structure in P4/nmm space group. Polycrystalline samples and single-crystals of Li111 and Na111 display superconducting transitions at ~ 18 K and 12-25 K, respectively. No magnetic order has been found in either compound, although a weak magnetic background is clearly in evidence. The origin of the...

We attempt to unveil the fine structure of volatility feedback effects in the context of general quadratic autoregressive (QARCH) models, which assume that today's volatility can be expressed as a general quadratic form of the past daily returns. The standard ARCH or GARCH framework is recovered when the quadratic kernel is diagonal. The calibration of these models on US stock returns reveals several unexpected features. The off-diagona 7fa l (non ARCH) coefficients of the quadratic kernel are...