Remember me

Register  |   Lost password?


 

Musings on Markets's Blog

Spotify Loose Ends: Pricing, User Value and Big Data!

July 5, 2018 Comments (0)

In my last post, I valued Spotify, using information from its prospectus, and promised to come back to cover three loose ends: (1) a pricing of the company to contrast with my intrinsic valuation, (2) a valuation of a Spotify subscriber and, by extension, a subscriber-based valuation of the company, and (3) the value of big data, seen through the prism of what Spotify can learn about its subscribers from their use of its service, and convert to profits. 1. The Pricing of SpotifyI won't bore...

Stream On: An IPO Valuation of Spotify!

July 5, 2018 Comments (0)

In the last few weeks, we have seen two high profile unicorns file for initial public offerings. The first out of the gate was Dropbox, a storage solution for a world where gigabyte files are the rule rather than the exception, with a filing on February 23. Following close after, on February 28, Spotify, positioning itself as the music streaming analog to Netflix, filed its prospectus. With it's larger potential market capitalization and unusual IPO structure, Spotify has attracted more...

Damodaran Online: There is an App for that!

July 5, 2018 Comments (0)

My posts over the last two months have been heavy, dealing first with my data update from January 2018, and with the market and its volatility in the last few weeks. I felt like taking a break and talking about something lighter and more personal, and giving you an update on my teaching, writing and data plans for this year, with news about an app for the iPhone or iPad that you might (or might not) find useful. I won't fault you if you are not in the least bit interested in what I am doing,...

Interest Rates and Stock Prices: It's Complicated!

July 5, 2018 Comments (0)

Jerome Powell, the new Fed Chair, was on Capitol Hill on February 27, and his testimony was, for the most part, predictable and uncontroversial. He told Congress that he believed that the economy had strengthened over the course of the last year and that the Fed would continue on its path of "raising rates". Analysts have spent the next few days reading the tea leaves of his testimony, to decide whether this would translate into three or four rate hikes and what this would mean for stocks. In...

January 2018 Data Update 10: The Price is Right!

July 5, 2018 Comments (0)

In my first nine posts on my data update for 2018, I focused on the costs that companies face in raising equity and debt, and their investment, financing and dividend decisions. In assessing those decisions, though, I looked at their actions through the lens of value creation, arguing that investing in projects that earn less than their cost of capital is not a good use of shareholder capital. While this may seem like a reasonable conclusion, it is built on the implicit assumption that...

Testing Times: Market Turmoil and Investment Serenity

July 5, 2018 Comments (0)

The last week has been a roller coaster ride, though more down than up, and investors have done what they always do during market crises. The fear factor rises, some investors sell and head for the safer pastures, some are paralyzed not knowing what to do, and some double down as contrarians, buying into the sell off. In the last week, I found myself drawn to each of three camps, often at different points in the same day, as the market went through wild mood swings. These are my most...

January 2018 Data Update 9: Dividends, Stock Buybacks and Cash Holdings

July 5, 2018 Comments (0)

If success for a farmer is measured by his or her harvest, success in a business, from an investors' standpoint, should be measured by its capacity to return cash flows for its owners. That is not belittling the intermediate steps needed to get there, since to be able to generate these cash flows, businesses have to find ways to treat employees well, satisfy customers and leave society at ease with their existence, but the end game does not change. That is why I find it surprising that when...

January 2018 Data Update 8: Debt and Taxes

July 5, 2018 Comments (0)

In the United States, as in much of the rest of the world, and as has been true for most of the last century, the tax code has been tilted towards debt, rewarding firms that borrow money with tax savings, relative to those that use equity to fund their operations. While the original rationale for this debt bias was to allow the large infrastructure companies of the equity markets (railroads, followed by phone and natural resource companies) to raise financing to fund their growth, that reason...

January 2018 Data Update 2: The Buoyancy of US Equities

July 5, 2018 Comments (0)

If you were an investor in US stocks, 2017 was a very good year for you. Faced with a wall of macro economic and political worries, the US equity market proved more than up to the challenge and delivered good returns, proving the experts wrong again. Looking back at the year, the word that I used to describe US equities at the start of last year, which was "resilient", best described US stocks in 2017 as well. As we enter 2018 with US stocks at historical highs, worries remain, but stocks are...

January 2018 Data Update 5: Country Risk Update

July 5, 2018 Comments (0)

96 Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE...