Happiness causes over-optimism which causes over-trading. Repeat until crash occurs.Optimistic Fools People who are happy are more confident and expect to make more money by trading, and anticipate taking lower risks in doing so. This result ought to be enough to depress most people, but most people are optimistic and don’t depress easily. This is especially true if they make money on their random trades, because that makes them happier, more optimistic and more prone to trading. Even...

107 Ways of Being Wrong As we’ve seen in The Big List of Behavioral Biases, there are 101 (well, 107 at the time of writing) ways in which people exhibit irrational biases. The basic idea, that we’re affected by these biases in predictable ways, is now well accepted. The problem is that there are simply too many biases for this to be the be-all and end-all of the explanation of market irrationality. So while the basic concepts of behavioral finance are understood, in the sense that...

Married CEOs and fund managers take less risks than single ones Sex and CEOs Sexual selection – the competition for mates – lies at the heart of Charles Darwin’s theory of natural selection. All things being equal – which they never are, of course – any behavior or attribute which makes an individual more attractive to breeding partners should end up being selected for because the unsuccessful individuals in the mating game leave no offspring. Given the biological imperative to pass on their...

Viciously Circular In the depths of the Great Depression US unemployment hovered around the 25% mark, with 30% of the youth unemployed.  Today in Greece the comparable numbers are 22% and a scarcely believable 54% (see: Greek Labour Force Study). Meanwhile another €4.2 billion has been pumped into Greece by the European Central Bank (ECB) via the European Financial Stability Facility, despite the vast protest vote against the externally imposed austerity measures delivered in their...

“She was interviewing a psychopath.  She showed him a picture of a frightened face and asked him to identify the emotions.  He said he didn’t know what the emotion was but it was the face people pulled just before he killed them.” (The Psychopath Test, Jon Ronson) A Boardroom Blitz Psychopaths lack empathy, are pathological liars, have an enormous sense of self-worth, are impulsive, irresponsible and won’t accept responsibility for their own actions.  They make up 1% of the total...

A Middle Aged Dispute Medieval scholars have a reputation for disputation on the most abstract and rarefied of theological questions, the “how many angels can dance of the head of a pin” problem.  Of course, this is now a byword for particularly pointless, time-wasting debates. Modern investors have their own equivalent conundrums, such as “does market growth come from dividends or capital growth?”  Just like its Middle Ages counterparts it turns out that the answer is neither obvious...

Non-conscious Numbskulls We all know the feeling of mindlessness. You get it when you drive the same roads as usual and get out at the end not remembering anything about the journey, or when you eat a meal without tasting it, or leave a meeting without the faintest idea what just happened. Yet to everyone around us we’ve behaved just the same way we always do. There’s something really odd about this, because it suggests that we don’t need to be conscious of what we’re doing to achieve what we...

Ask Not  The crowdfunding provisions in the JOBS Act have provided a rich source of material for commentators both for and against the concept. Providing bright eyed innovators with seed capital seems like a good idea, but pushing small investors into dubious schemes with little chance of success is less obviously smart. In fact the crowdfunding regulations are still being created, so we don’t really know how much investors will be protected from themselves but we know one affected group...

How Not To Make Money Making a turn from the markets is hard, we all know that.  Unfortunately we tend to make it a lot harder for ourselves than we need to, and if we don’t then the investment industry is always there to lend a helping hand.  For an extortionate fee, of course. We’ve already looked at the gross amount of money we conspire to lose each year – something in the region of $160 billion a year in the US alone (see: The 160 Billion Dollar Bezzle).  Now a UK writer has...

"Investing is hard.  It is hard for everyone, including the most successful investors in the world.  Nevertheless, investing is one of those adult responsibilities we all need to come to terms with.” Abnormal Returns: Winning Strategies from the Frontlines of the Investment Blogosphere by Tadas Viskanta Trying to understand the amorphous creature that is the financial blogosphere is an exercise as hopeless – and as pointless – as the quest for the Holy Grail.  We don’t know what...