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Cursed By Momentum

Fri, 09 Mar 2018 01:56:51 GMT

Edgy Investors Although most investors have no edge on the market there's a proportion of them that persist in trading actively, the main effect of which is to enrich their brokers. There are various explanations of why this occurs, but it seems to come down to some combination of inherent overconfidence and a perverse refusal to take account of negative information.  This is particularly dangerous in calm periods such as those we’ve been experiencing in markets over the past few years.  In such times momentum strategies are particularly effective – and serve to supercharge the behavior of naturally overconfident individuals. The end results are usually not pretty.. Snow Business We’ve covered the basic research into overconfidence here a number of times. Odean and Barber (see O is for Overconfidence) showed that the more investors trade, the more they tend to lose – high turnover investors spend more on fees and end up losing money relative to less active traders. In fact...