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Our popular course Introduction to QuantLib Development will be taking place June 18-20th, 2018.

 

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The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 35

June 1, 2018 Comments (0)

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 35Photo Credit: Renaud Camus ====================In my view, these were my best posts written between August 2015 and October 2015:Learning from the Past, Part 6 [Hopefully Final, But It Won’t Be…]The currently final episode on my investing errors, covering the last eight years.  Note that Valero has made me five times on my initial investment, though, and I still own it now.  This piece has…View On WordPress

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 35

May 31, 2018 Comments (0)

Photo Credit: Renaud Camus====================In my view, these were my best posts written between August 2015 and October 2015:Learning from the Past, Part 6 [Hopefully Final, But It Won’t Be…]The currently final episode on my investing errors, covering the last eight years.  Note that Valero has made me five times on my initial investment, though, and I still own it now.  This piece has more of the bright side of what I learned.Musings on the Wealth Effect“None of the ways I mentioned...

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 34

May 23, 2018 Comments (0)

Photo Credit: Renaud Camus=========================In my view, these were my best posts written between May 2015 and July 2015:Learning from the Past, Part 5b [Institutional Stock Version]Learning from the Past, Part 5c [Institutional Stock Version]How I did a bad job for Hovde on Scottish Re and National Atlantic Holdings.  Also, what I did to mitigate the errors.  (And I am supposed to be really good with insurance companies…)The SEC Pursues a Fool’s ErrandOn why the Consolidated Audit...

The Pips are Squeaking

May 16, 2018 Comments (0)

The Pips are SqueakingPhoto Credit: sid=================This should be a short post.  I just want to note the degree of stress that many emerging market countries are under.  The Fed raises rates, and something blows up.  That is often the class of debt that has grown the most in the bull phase of the cycle, or, the one that has financed with short-term debt.  This is the “volatility machine” that Michael Pettis…View On WordPress

The Pips are Squeaking

May 15, 2018 Comments (0)

Photo Credit: sid=================This should be a short post.  I just want to note the degree of stress that many emerging market countries are under.  The Fed raises rates, and something blows up.  That is often the class of debt that has grown the most in the bull phase of the cycle, or, the one that has financed with short-term debt.  This is the “volatility machine” that Michael Pettis wrote so well about.The Brazilian stocks I own have been falling.  A little lower, and I will...

Thoughts on Bank Debt

May 11, 2018 Comments (0)

Thoughts on Bank DebtPhoto Credit: Teemu008I have long said that until an asset class goes through a “failure cycle,” risk-based pricing will be weak toward the assets in question.  One asset class that has become popular of late is bank debt.  Bank debt is a loan to a corporation that typically has first priority to make claims on the company in bankruptcy, ahead of the bondholders, much less the preferred…View On WordPress

Thoughts on Bank Debt

May 11, 2018 Comments (0)

Photo Credit: Teemu008 I have long said that until an asset class goes through a “failure cycle,” risk-based pricing will be weak toward the assets in question.  One asset class that has become popular of late is bank debt.  Bank debt is a loan to a corporation that typically has first priority to make claims on the company in bankruptcy, ahead of the bondholders, much less the preferred stockholders and the common equity.Though it is called bank debt, often the loans are...

Why I Watch the Thirty

April 20, 2018 Comments (0)

Photo Credit: andy carter=============I like long bonds.  I am not saying that I like them as an investment.  I like them because they tell me about the economy.Though I argued to the Obama Administration that they should issue Fifties, Centuries and Perpetuals, the Thirty-year bond remains the longest bond issued.  I think its yield tells us a lot about the economy.How fast is nominal growth?  Look at the Thirty; it is highly correlated with that.What should the Fed use for its monetary...

Notes on the Fed Announcements

March 22, 2018 Comments (0)

Photo Credit: City of Boston Archives==========================Listening to the Fed Chair’s press conference, there was one thing where I disagreed with what Powell was saying.  He said a few times that they only made one decision at the FOMC meeting, that of raising the Fed Funds rate and the reverse repo rate by 0.25%.  They made another decision as well. The decided to raise the rate of quantitative tightening [QT] by increasing the rate of Treasury, MBS and agency bonds rolloff by...

Just Don’t Invert the Yield Curve

March 21, 2018 Comments (0)

Photo Credit: Brookings Institution================================Jerome Powell is not an economist, and as such, has the potential to try to remake the way the Fed does monetary policy.  Rather than hold onto outmoded ideas ideas like the Phillips Curve, which may have made sense when the US was a more insular economy, there are better ways to think of monetary policy from a structural standpoint of how financial firms work.(Note: the Phillips Curve relies on a very simple assumption that...