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GPUs, Monte Carlo Simulation and Kooderive with Professor Mark Joshi - February 25-27th, London, UK - Further Information

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On Fourth Quarter 13Fs

Wed, 29 Feb 2012 22:03:08 GMT

I often look through 13F filings to get investment ideas.  The last time I did it, one of my readers asked a question like this:

It’s nice to see how large the positions are of the investors that you track, but wouldn’t it be better to track the changes in positions?  After all, new allocations are more indicative of better value than older holdings.

That’s probably correct, though for my own investing it might not be as accurate, because I rank current positions against challengers – my current positions have to justify their existence to stay in the portfolio.

But I thought it would be worth trying to do that, and also do it as a percentage of each stock’s market capitalization.

Now, there are difficulties in doing an analysis like this:

  • CUSIP changes
  • M&A (takeovers, spinoffs
  • CUSIP formats (some managers make it difficult to read)
  • Deliberately difficult formatting
  • One firm fills out the from wrong, swapping fields
  • Multiple holders within a given firm
  • You have to create a CUSIP/ticker database (paid my 13-year old assistant $50 to do that.)
  • In short, a lot of data scrubbing.

Now the results of looking at 13Fs can be valuable, and there is a small cottage industry doing so.  Mebane Faber has done good work with this, as has Insider Monkey, Manual of Ideas and Street of Walls.  Following the ideas of some of the best investors leads to better returns, even if there is a lag involved.

And the lag doesn’t matter much.  Most of these investors invest for years not months, so if you get a signal it should be valid for some time after it is received.

Anyway, I calculated the positions for 74 investors that I have some respect for (listed at the bottom).  My objective is to look at them as a group.  For the most part, I don’t care which of them is investing in a given company.

Following this are a variety of tables with some commentary on what might be going on.  I think you might find some valuable ideas in the companies where  there are large additions or holdings as a proportion of market capitalization.

Tables

Stocks with the most new investors:

New Ticker Name

9

DLPH Delphi Automotive PLC

6

LVLT LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS INC

6

LMCA LIBERTY MEDIA CORP NEW

5

ORCL Oracle Corp

4

TRIP TRIPADVISOR INC

4

KORS MICHAEL KORS HLDGS LTD

3

BAC BANK OF AMERICA CORP

3

CVX CHEVRON CORP NEW

3

DELL Dell Inc

3

EP EL PASO CORP

3

VRUS PHARMASSET INC

3

TDC TERADATA CORP

 

Stocks that had the most investors increase positions (including new owners):

Increased Ticker Name

15

GOOG GOOGLE INC.

9

DLPH Delphi Automotive PLC

9

AAPL APPLE INC

8

ORCL Oracle Corp

7

LMCA LIBERTY MEDIA CORP NEW

7

C CITIGROUP INC

7

LOW LOWES COS INC

7

PEP PEPSICO INC

7

MSFT MICROSOFT CORP

7

V Visa Inc-Class A Shares

6

LVLT LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS INC

6

INTC Intel Corporation

6

SYY SYSCO CORP

 

Stocks that have the most owners at the end of the fourth quarter:

Owned Ticker Name

22

GOOG GOOGLE INC.

21

MSFT MICROSOFT CORP

17

AAPL APPLE INC

14

CSCO CISCO SYS INC COM

14

WMT WAL-MART STORES INC

14

WFC WELLS FARGO & CO NEW

13

JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON

12

ORCL Oracle Corp

12

C CITIGROUP INC

12

MA Mastercard Inc – Class A

11

BAC BANK OF AMERICA CORP

11

BRK.B BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL B

11

BRK.A BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL A

 

Stocks with the most selling out entirely (including M&A-related):

Sold Ticker Name

6

EXPE Expedia Inc.

6

LVLT Level 3 Communications

5

C CITIGROUP INC

5

SINA SINA CORP

5

Acquired NALCO HOLDING COMPANY

4

EBAY EBAY INC

4

CVI CVR Energy Inc

4

CCE COCA COLA ENTERPRISES INC NE

3

LINTA LIBERTY INTERACTIVE CORP-A

3

CVS CVS CAREMARK CORPORATION

3

AMZN AMAZON COM INC

3

VIAB Viacom Inc Cl B

3

EXC Exelon Corp

3

DVN DEVON ENERGY CORPORATION

3

COV COVIDIEN PLC

3

XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP

3

MOS The Mosaic Company

3

RL RALPH LAUREN CORP

3

IRM IRON MTN INC

3

HFC HOLLYFRONTIER CORP

3

GR GOODRICH CORP

3

CTXS CITRIX SYS INC

3

Acquired CEPHALON INC

3

ELNK EARTHLINK INC

3

TIN TEMPLE INLAND INC

 

Stocks with the most decreases in positions (including selling out in entire):

Decreased Ticker Name

12

MSFT MICROSOFT CORP

10

WFC WELLS FARGO & CO NEW

10

C CITIGROUP INC

8

BAC BANK OF AMERICA CORP

8

PFE PFIZER INC

8

EBAY EBAY INC

8

NWSA NEWS CORP

8

LINTA LIBERTY INTERACTIVE CORP-A

7

AAPL APPLE INC

7

CSCO CISCO SYS INC COM

7

WMT WAL-MART STORES INC

7

BRK.B BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL B

7

CVS CVS CAREMARK CORPORATION

7

DELL Dell Inc

7

AON AON CORP

7

AMZN AMAZON COM INC

7

EXPE Expedia Inc.

 

With a few exceptions, the above reads like lists of common large cap stocks, with a few midcaps thrown in.  It doesn’t look that much different when the lists are done by dollar amount of change.  But what if we do this as a fraction of market capitalization?

(Please note, the 13F filings measure as of 12/31/2011, and my market caps are from mid-February.  That induces some distortion, but I don’t think that much.  Also note that large holdings as aproportion of market cap often come from one hedge fund and not necessarily many.

Here is a list of new purchases, in declining order of percentage of market capitalization:

New Ticker Name

16.50%

TRGT TARGACEPT INC

15.02%

DLPH Delphi Automotive PLC

10.73%

CMVT COMVERSE TECHNOLOGY INC

10.54%

NTK NORTEK INC

7.54%

ARO Aeropostale Inc

6.41%

MTG MGIC INVT CORP WIS

6.21%

HII HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDS INC

5.76%

IRE Bank of Ireland

5.64%

TRIP TRIPADVISOR INC

5.08%

LMCA LIBERTY MEDIA CORP NEW

4.75%

AVY Avery Dennison

4.58%

SEMG SEMGROUP CORP

4.41%

VPRT VISTAPRINT N V

4.25%

MPC MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP

3.92%

CSTR COINSTAR INC

3.49%

SBH SALLY BEAUTY HLDGS INC

3.44%

KMT Kennametal Inc.

3.34%

SIRO Sirona Dental Systms

3.18%

EP EL PASO CORP

3.10%

HGG HHGREGG INC

3.06%

CVI CVR Energy Inc

3.04%

NTAP NETAPP INC

 

Here is a list of position increases, including new purchases, in declining order of percentage of market capitalization:

Increased Ticker Name

16.50%

TRGT TARGACEPT INC

15.02%

DLPH Delphi Automotive PLC

10.77%

CP CANADIAN PAC RY LTD

10.73%

CMVT COMVERSE TECHNOLOGY INC

10.54%

NTK NORTEK INC

8.55%

WBMD WEBMD HEALTH CORP

7.54%

ARO Aeropostale Inc

6.57%

NAV Navistar International Corp

6.41%

MTG MGIC INVT CORP WIS

6.21%

HII HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDS INC

5.76%

IRE Bank of Ireland

5.74%

AVY Avery Dennison

5.64%

TRIP TRIPADVISOR INC

5.19%

LMCA LIBERTY MEDIA CORP NEW

4.58%

SEMG SEMGROUP CORP

4.48%

EPAX Ambassadors Group Inc.

4.44%

CBG CBRE GROUP INC

4.42%

CSTR COINSTAR INC

4.41%

VPRT VISTAPRINT N V

4.25%

MPC MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP

4.08%

PCLN PRICELINE COM INC

 

Here is a list of position decreases, including total sales, in declining order of percentage of market capitalization:

Decreased Ticker Name

-17.83%

VGR VECTOR GROUP LTD

-13.66%

EMMS EMMIS COMMUNICATIONS CORP

-10.43%

DIOD DIODES INC

-9.12%

CLX Clorox Co

-9.02%

NEWP NEWPORT CORP

-8.93%

IWM ISHARES TR

-8.61%

EXPE Expedia Inc.

-6.86%

GEN GENON ENERGY INC

-6.60%

PANL UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORP

-6.43%

LVLT GLOBAL CROSSING LTD

-6.32%

AAMRQ AMR Corp

-6.22%

NIHD NII HLDGS INC

-6.15%

CVI CVR Energy Inc

-6.03%

AMED AMEDISYS INC

-5.85%

CIS CAMELOT INFORMATION

-5.60%

SINA SINA CORP

-5.46%

CQB CHIQUITA BRANDS INTL INC

-5.44%

STE STERIS CORP

-5.37%

CJES C&J ENERGY SERVICES INC

-5.30%

PDLI PDL BIOPHARMA INC

 

Here is a list of positions sold out in entire, in declining order of percentage of market capitalization:

Sold Ticker Name

-17.83%

VGR VECTOR GROUP LTD

-13.66%

EMMS EMMIS COMMUNICATIONS CORP

-10.43%

DIOD DIODES INC

-9.08%

CLX Clorox Co

-9.02%

NEWP NEWPORT CORP

-7.41%

EXPE Expedia Inc.

-6.60%

PANL UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORP

-6.56%

IWM ISHARES TR

-6.43%

LVLT GLOBAL CROSSING LTD

-6.32%

AAMRQ AMR Corp

-6.22%

NIHD NII HLDGS INC

-6.03%

AMED AMEDISYS INC

-5.85%

CIS CAMELOT INFORMATION

-5.60%

SINA SINA CORP

-5.27%

CQB CHIQUITA BRANDS INTL INC

-5.10%

CVI CVR Energy Inc

-4.97%

IT GARTNER INC

-4.90%

ACFC Atlantic Coast Financial Corp

-4.73%

BIDZ BIDZ.com Inc.

-4.55%

CVC CABLEVISION SYS CORP

-4.52%

SAFM SANDERSON FARMS INC

-4.32%

LEA LEAR CORP

-4.31%

TIN TEMPLE INLAND INC

-4.05%

WGO WINNEBAGO INDS INC

 

Holdings by Total Dollar Amount at the end of the Fourth Quarter

Held Ticker Name
  15,763,863,000 KO COCA COLA COMPANY
  13,896,920,000 WFC WELLS FARGO & CO NEW
  11,801,570,000 IBM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHS
     7,498,749,000 AXP AMERICAN EXPRESS CO
     7,124,564,000 PG PROCTER & GAMBLE CO/THE
     5,561,149,000 WMT WAL-MART STORES INC
     4,965,749,000 KFT KRAFT FOODS INC-CLASS A
     4,828,136,000 MSFT MICROSOFT CORP
     4,720,375,000 GOOG GOOGLE INC.
     4,539,055,000 NWSA NEWS CORP
     4,504,224,000 AAPL APPLE INC
     4,007,205,000 HPQ HEWLETT PACKARD CO
     3,387,821,000 MSI MOTOROLA SOLUTIONS INC
     3,285,855,000 GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
     3,261,413,000 GSK GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC-SPON ADR
     3,137,451,000 JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON
     3,106,083,000 USB US BANCORP DEL
     3,089,445,000 FDX FEDEX CORP
     2,986,973,000 COF CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP
     2,869,898,000 EP EL PASO CORP
     2,836,729,000 IEP ICAHN ENTERPRISES LP
     2,809,578,000 SLB Schlumberger Ltd
     2,807,657,000 NVS NOVARTIS AG-ADR
     2,776,985,000 BK BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP
     2,762,244,000 COP CONOCOPHILLIPS
     2,704,595,000 PEP PEPSICO INC
     2,620,576,000 CMCSA COMCAST CORP-CLASS A
     2,618,651,000 PFE PFIZER INC
     2,524,873,000 DELL Dell Inc
     2,475,713,000 GE GENERAL ELECTRIC CO
     2,321,383,000 OXY OCCIDENTAL PETE CORP DEL
     2,314,288,000 TWX TIME WARNER INC
     2,290,333,000 MRK MERCK & CO. INC.
     2,252,588,000 AON AON CORP
     2,246,712,000 DTV DIRECTV-CLASS A
     2,205,486,000 PCLN PRICELINE COM INC
     2,166,225,000 MMI MOTOROLA MOBILITY HLDGS INC
     2,124,678,000 SNY SANOFI-ADR
     2,075,367,000 QCOM QUALCOMM INC

 

And the greatest holdings by percentage of market capitalization:

Held/MC Ticker Name

73.30%

IEP ICAHN ENTERPRISES LP

71.98%

BAGL EINSTEIN NOAH REST GROUP INC

69.22%

HRG HARBINGER GROUP INC

65.92%

FDML FEDERAL MOGUL CORP

51.38%

SPB SPECTRUM BRANDS HLDGS INC

46.89%

ARII AMERICAN RAILCAR INDS INC

40.88%

CDCO Comdisco Holding

38.77%

NOA NORTH AMERN ENERGY PARTNERS

37.92%

DYN DYNEGY INC DEL

36.46%

BFLY BLUEFLY INC

32.11%

LEAP LEAP WIRELESS INTL INC

29.37%

QUAD QUAD / GRAPHICS INC

29.34%

TXI Texas Industries Inc.

28.92%

BIOF BIOFUEL ENERGY CORP

27.83%

ENZN ENZON PHARMACEUTICALS INC

27.56%

HPP HUDSON PAC PPTYS INC

27.54%

BKU BANKUNITED INC

27.54%

OSTK OVERSTOCK COM INC DEL

27.35%

SIX SIX FLAGS ENTMT CORP NEW

26.41%

DIN DINEEQUITY INC

26.27%

WPO Washington Post

26.04%

LORL LORAL SPACE & COMMUNICATNS INC

25.12%

LGF LIONS GATE ENTMNT CORP

25.00%

VSAT VIASAT INC

24.85%

JEF JEFFERIES GROUP INC NEW

24.71%

INS INTELLIGENT SYS CORP NEW

24.59%

LVLT LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS INC

24.21%

ZLC ZALE CORP NEW

23.40%

ABH ABITIBIBOWATER INC

23.19%

CTO Consolidated Tomoka Land Co

22.71%

XCO EXCO RESOURCES

22.34%

THRX THERAVANCE INC

22.28%

MLI MUELLER INDS INC

21.96%

MSI MOTOROLA SOLUTIONS INC

21.49%

SNBC Sun Bancorp Inc

 

I appreciate the analysis as a portion of market capitalization, because it reflects the limitations of what managers can do.  Again, I will look most closely at current holdings and additions as a proportion of market capitalization.

Investor list:

  • Akre
  • Altai
  • Ancient Art
  • Appaloosa
  • Atlantic
  • Bares
  • Baupost
  • Blue Ridge
  • BP Capital (Pickens)
  • Brave Warrior
  • Breeden
  • BRK
  • Capital Growth
  • Centaur
  • Centerbridge
  • Chou
  • Coatue
  • Dodge & Cox
  • Dreman
  • Eagle Capital
  • Eagle Value
  • Edinburgh
  • Fairfax
  • Farallon
  • Fiduciary
  • Force
  • FPA
  • Gates
  • Glenview
  • GoldenTree
  • Greenhaven
  • Greenlight
  • H Partners
  • Harbinger
  • Hawkshaw
  • Hayman
  • Hound
  • Hovde
  • Icahn
  • Invesco Private
  • Jana
  • Jensen
  • Joho
  • Lane Five
  • Leucadia
  • Lone Pine
  • M3F
  • Markel
  • Matrix
  • Maverick
  • MHR
  • Montag
  • MSD
  • Muhlenkamp
  • PabraI
  • Parnassus
  • Passport
  • Paulson
  • Pennant
  • Perry
  • Pershing Square
  • Sageview
  • Scout
  • Soros
  • Southeastern
  • Third Point
  • Tiger Global
  • Tweedy Browne
  • ValueAct
  • Viking
  • Weitz
  • West Coast
  • Wintergreen
  • Yacktman

 

Full disclosure: Long WMT, ORCL, INTC, VOD, HPQ, COP, Short SPY


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