Remember me

Register  |   Lost password?




Introduction to QuantLib Development with Luigi Ballabio - London, September 19-21st, 2016 - http://bit.ly/QuantLib-2016

Understanding Uncertainty's Blog


How surprising was the cluster of cycle deaths in London?

January 4, 2014 Comments (0)

More or Less recently featured Jody Aberdein talking about the cluster of 6 cycle deaths in London over a 2 week period. The paper with the details of the analysis can, for a while, be freely obtained from Significance magazine. Details of the statistical methods are given here - these are necessarily quite complex due to the need to allow for all possible 2 week periods.

New content for GCSE Maths announced

December 4, 2013 Comments (0)

Following the consultation discussed previously on this blog, the Department for Education has announced the revised content for GCSE Mathematics. Compared to the current content, the most notable changes are (a) separation of probability and statistics, (b) removal of the data-cycle, (c) increased material. The proposed content for probability is as follows: Probability record describe and analyse the frequency of outcomes of probability experiments using tables and frequency trees apply...

PISA statistical methods - more detailed comments

November 25, 2013 Comments (0)

In the Radio 4 documentary PISA - Global Education Tables Tested, broadcast on November 25th, a comment is made that the statistical issues are a bit complex to go into. Here is a brief summary of my personal concerns: to get an idea of the feelings about PISA statistical methods, see for example an article in the Times Educational Supplement, and the response by OECD. The PISA methodology is complex and rather opaque, in spite of the substantial amount of material published in the...

Complaint about the Press Complaints Commission

November 24, 2013 Comments (0)

What a strange organisation the Press Complaints Commission (PCC) is. They say that a press article is inaccurate, but consider it reasonable that the inaccurate headline remains uncorrected. Brief Timeline 12th july 2013. Keogh report on 14 hospitals is due out. Professor Sir Brian Jarman provides data and briefs journalists on above-average deaths in hospitals being investigated. He emphasizes that such deaths cannot be interpreted as ‘avoidable’. 13th July. The Sunday Telegraph leads...

Press Complaints Commission decide on '13,000 needless deaths' story

November 4, 2013 Comments (0)

I was of a number of complainants to the Press Complaints Commission about the Sunday Telegraph story headlined 13,000 died needlessly at 14 worst NHS trusts, as the Telegraph journalists had been explicitly told by the originator of the figures, Professor Brian Jarman, that this was an inappropriate interpretation. My objections were expressed in an article in the British Medical Journal. The Press Complaints Commission has now told me that “The Commission decided that the Sunday Telegraph...

Probability and stats feature strongly in 'Core maths' proposals for 16-18 year olds

October 14, 2013 Comments (0)

The government is pushing ahead with proposals for a maths qualification to be taken by 16-18 year-olds who got at least a grade C in Maths GCSE but are not doing maths A level. Further details were released on October 8th by the Department of Education, coinciding with the release of a report by the Advisory Committee on Mathematics Education (ACME) from its 'expert panel on core mathematics'. This report includes the 'indicative content' contained in the table below The importance of...

September 19th is Huntrodds day!

September 21, 2013 Comments (0)

When on holiday at Whitby we took this photo of this extraordinary memorial to Mr and Mrs Huntrodds. As you can read, they were both born on September 19th 1600, married on September 19th, had 12 children and then both died within 5 hours of each other on their joint 80th birthday on September 19th 1680. Now that's an impressive 'coincidence' - if it can be considered that. After all, they presumably chose to marry, and when to marry, so the really odd thing is when they died. But was there...

Probability and stats in GCSE Maths

August 4, 2013 Comments (0)

The current consultation on GCSE subject content and assessment objectives for Mathematics GCSE features major changes for probability and statistics. I encourage everyone with an interest to respond (before 20th August): here is my personal take on the topic. The proposals are as follows: Probability record and describe the frequency of outcomes of probability experiments using tables and frequency trees apply ideas of randomness, fairness and equally likely events to calculate expected...

Fatality risk on Boris-bikes?

July 7, 2013 Comments (0)

I was saddened by the death on Friday of a Boris-bike rider in Whitechapel High Street, particularly as I am a frequent and enthusiastic user of the scheme. But as a statistician, I also immediately wonder about the risks of riding these bikes. Transport for London report that between December 2010 and 31st May 2013 there were around 22,000,000 Barclays Cycle Hire (the official name) trips in London. There were 750,000 trips in May, so let’s assume that by July 7th there were around 23,000,000...

Speed cameras, regression-to-the-mean, and the Daily Mail (again)

June 7, 2013 Comments (0)

It was interesting to hear ‘regression-to-the-mean’ being discussed on the Today programme this morning, even if the quality of the debate wasn’t great. The issue was the effectiveness of speed cameras, which tend to get installed after a spate of accidents. Since bad luck does not last, accidents tend to fall after such a ‘blip’, and this fall is generally attributed to the speed camera, whereas it would have happened anyway: this is what is meant by ‘regression-to-the-mean’. The report from...