Jesse B Fletcher, Jacob Apkarian, Anthony Roberts, Kirk Lawrence, Christopher Chase-Dunn, Robert A Hanneman
University of California-Riverside

Abstract

Collins’ recent theory on battle dynamics is converted into a system of interconnected equations and simulated. Between evenly matched armies, initial advantages are shown to be difficult to overcome due to the numerous reinforcing pathways throughout the model. Morale advantages are shown to lead to quick victories, while material advantages lead to longer wars often won through attrition. A simulation of the Civil War is provided that appears to coincide with historical reality. The implications of these simulations for Collins’ broader theory are briefly discussed.

Extract

Randall Collins’ (2010) recent publication in Cliodynamics (“A Dynamic Theory of Battle Victory and Defeat”) provides a new sociological theory of how battles (and by extension, wars) are won and lost. His theory has implications for military effectiveness, geopolitics, history, and the broader study of conflict in sociology. In conjunction with his 2008 book Violence, this publication furthers his attempt to unify his earlier passion for conflict sociology with his later focus on emotional energy and micro-sociological interaction processes. Collins’ model focuses on battles between armies on land. It has implications for sea and air battles, but these are beyond the scope of the present inquiry. This paper adapts Collins’ model of battle dynamics into a simulation model, a fully-mathematized translation of his “boxes and arrows” models, to test the theory’s assumptions and assertions. The authors have worked in conjunction with Collins through personal communications to best represent the intent and meaning of his theory. In the sections below we first reprise Collins’ theory. We then translate the theory into a dynamic systems simulation model. The basic behavior of the model is examined in a series of experiments, and it is applied to the case of the American Civil War. It was determined that in Collins’ model of battle dynamics, morale advantages manifest themselves early in the conflict, whereas material advantages are more influential as the conflict drags on. In conclusion, we note some limitations and possible future directions for research.

Published in: Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History (2011) and in case you're interested, here's a definition of Cliodynamics.

Via: Complexity DIgest