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Publication Name: The Aleph Blog

Brief description: Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control

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Owner Name: David J. Merkel

Joined: August 20th, 2011

Activity

The Aleph Blog wrote a new blog post titled Favorite Aleph Blog Post of 2017?

As you might recall, I was invited to participate in The Best Investment Writing, Volume 1. Well, volume 2 is being discussed. This time, I thought I would let my readers offer their opinion on the matter. So, let me know, you can take this poll — oh, and can vote for as many as you like.Thanks,David Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.
(7 days ago)

The Aleph Blog wrote a new blog post titled Classic: Wrecking Ball Looms for Big Housing Spec

Photo Credit: Rhys A.====================I thought this old post from RealMoney.com was lost, never to be found again.  This was the important post made on November 22, 2006 that forecast some of the troubles in the subprime residential mortgage backed securities market.  I favored the idea that there there would be a crash in residential housing prices, and the best way to play it would be to pick up the pieces after the crash, because of the difficulties of being able to be right on the timing of shorting could be problematic.  In that trade, too early would mean wrong if you had to lose...
(8 days ago)

The Aleph Blog wrote a new blog post titled Estimating Future Stock Returns, September 2017 Update

Another quarter goes by, the market rises further, and the the 10-year forward return falls again.  Here are the last eight values: 6.10%, 6.74%, 6.30%, 6.01%, 5.02%, 4.79%, and 4.30%, 3.99%.  At the end of September 2017, the figure would have been 4.49%, but the rally since the end of the quarter shaves future returns down to 3.99%.At the end of June the figure was 4.58%.  Subtract 29 basis points for the total return, and add back 12 basis points for mean reversion, and that would leave us at 4.41%.  The result for September month-end was 4.49%, so the re-estimation of the model added 8...
(9 days ago)

About:

David J. Merkel, CFA, FSA — 2010-present, I am working on setting up my own equity asset management shop, tentatively called Aleph Investments.  It is possible that I might do a joint venture with someone else if we can do more together than separately.

From 2008-2010, I was the Chief Economist and Director of Research of Finacorp Securities.  I did a many things for Finacorp, mainly research and analysis on a wide variety of fixed income and equity securities, and trading strategies.

Until 2007, I was a senior investment analyst at Hovde Capital, responsible for analysis and valuation of investment opportunities for the FIP funds, particularly of companies in the insurance industry. I also managed the internal profit sharing and charitable endowment monies of the firm.

From 2003-2007, I was a leading commentator at the investment website RealMoney.com.  Back in 2003, after several years of correspondence, James Cramer invited me to write for the site, and I wrote for RealMoney on equity and bond portfolio management, macroeconomics, derivatives, quantitative strategies, insurance issues, corporate governance, etc. My specialty is looking at the interlinkages in the markets in order to understand individual markets better.  I no longer contribute to RealMoney; I scaled it back because my work duties have gotten larger, and I began this blog to develop a distinct voice with a wider distribution.  After three-plus year of operation, I believe I have achieved that.

Prior to joining Hovde in 2003, I managed corporate bonds for Dwight Asset Management. In 1998, I joined the Mount Washington Investment Group as the Mortgage Bond and Asset Liability manager after working with Provident Mutual, AIG and Pacific Standard Life.

My background as a life actuary has given me a different perspective on investing. How do you earn money without taking undue risk? How do you convey ideas about investing while showing a proper level of uncertainty on the likelihood of success? How do the various markets fit together, telling us us a broader story than any single piece? These are the themes that I will deal with in this blog.

I hold bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Johns Hopkins University. In my spare time, I take care of our eight children with my wonderful wife Ruth.

Blog Objectives

My objectives in this blog are relatively simple:

  • To further flesh out my thoughts from RealMoney, and provide for a greater degree of interaction with readers there.
  • To interact more broadly with the blogosphere, adding my own distinct ideas to the mix.
  • To develop an investment management shop. Initially, this would be institutional money management on a “long only” and hedged basis. Eventually, I would create a mutual fund so that smaller retail investors can invest with me. I would try to buy up a failed mutual fund shell, allowing a way in that is cheaper, and providing tax-sheltered gains to early investors. But all of this is a dream that might not be realized. Until then, I can tell you about managers who manage money in a way similar to mine.
  • All of these goals rely on the help of Jesus Christ and my readers. I thank you for taking the time to read what I write.