About:

Welcome to the site that tries to make sense of chance, risk, luck, uncertainty and probability. Mathematics won't tell us what to do, but we think that understanding the numbers can help us deal with our own uncertainty and allow us to look critically at stories in the media.

This site is produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim is to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining! However we also acknowledge that uncertainty is not just a matter of working out numerical chances, and aim for an appropriate balance between qualitative and quantitative insights.

The current team comprises David Spiegelhalter, Mike Pearson, Owen Smith, Arciris Garay-Arevalo and Ian Short, with contributions from Hauke Riesch, Owen Walker, Madeleine Cule and Hayley Jones . However we are always looking for people who would like to contribute material to this site, and you will get proper acknowledgement.