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Forecasts? I Haven't Got A Clue ...

Mon, 16 Apr 2018 04:56:44 GMT

Small Worlds We predict things all the time, we can't help ourselves. And in the small world that constitutes our immediate bubble of experience those predictions may have some validity. But in the big world that we inhabit they often don't.  Which of those worlds do you think more accurately represents stockmarket investment? It's difficult for us to accept that our small world experience doesn't scale up to the big world, but it's often true. To all intents and purposes we're infants teetering on the edge of the volcano: to all intents and purposes we know absolutely nothing worth knowing. Prognosticators Forecasting is a tricky business. So tricky, in fact, that I long ago decided that I haven't got a clue what's going to happen next, so I try not to worry about it. But if you took away the ability to prognosticate about the future from most financial experts they'd actually have to go and get a proper job. There's nothing they like better than pontificating about the...