q-fin updates on arXiv.org
Mon, 16 Mar 2020 12:01:49 GMT language
Coronavirus (COVID-19) creates fear and uncertainty, hitting the global
economy and amplifying the financial markets volatility. The oil price reaction
to COVID-19 was gradually accommodated until March 09, 2020, when, 49 days
after the release of the first coronavirus monitoring report by the World
Health Organization (WHO), Saudi Arabia floods the market with oil. As a
result, international prices drop with more than 20% in one single day. Against
this background, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of
COVID-19 numbers on crude oil prices, while controlling for the impact of
financial volatility and the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty.
Our ARDL estimation shows that the COVID-19 daily reported cases of new
infections have a marginal negative impact on the crude oil prices in the long
run. Nevertheless, by amplifying the financial markets volatility, COVID-19
also has an indirect effect on the recent dynamics of crude oil prices.